What’s NOT going to happen in 2010

Last updated Dec 11, 2009 — 856 views

Technology market analyst ABI Research has published its annual prognostication of technology trends and events that won’t happen in the coming year. The 11-page article is available for free download (after registration) from the firm’s website.

“Compared to this time last year, things seem to be looking up on a number of fronts,” notes ABI in its overview of the report. “However the economic and geopolitical turmoil of the past twelve months will have effects that may need years to play out. It’s a bold analyst who will make definitive statements about what is going to happen even in the short-term (although that won’t stop many from trying!).”

“Slightly easier is discerning the developments that are very unlikely in the coming year,” ABI continues.

“So a dozen of ABI Research’s experts have put their heads together to debunk some of the most-hyped predictions about what will happen in tech-related industries around the world. They cover a wide terrain including mobile devices and applications, femtocells, mobile financial services, online video and pay-TV, social networking, data security, Wi-Fi, telepresence, navigation, telematics and location-based services, mobile networks, “green” technologies, and RFID.”

OK, so what are ABI’s predictions? Here’s ABI’s list of what’s NOT going to happen in 2010:

  1. eReaders will NOT reach mass market appeal
  2. There will be no iPhone killer, only an ever increasing herd of iPhone wannabes
  3. Fake Chinese phones will NOT destroy the handset market
  4. PCMCIA Cellular Data Card Modems will NOT make a comeback
  5. Femtocells are NOT going to go away
  6. Femtozone applications are NOT going invade living rooms with “femto app storefronts”
  7. Mobile person-to-person payments will NOT gain mass market acceptance in the US
  8. Internet Video is NOT going to create a mass exodus from pay-TV services
  9. Most “free” premium online video won’t become pay-per-play
  10. Social networking will NOT go though the year unscathed by security breakdowns
  11. Higher Education will NOT relinquish its leadership in early adoption of 802.11n
  12. Telepresence will NOT become mainstream
  13. All turn-by-turn handset-based navigation will NOT become free
  14. Carriers will NOT be sidelined by off-deck llocation-based services platforms
  15. Consumer telematics will NOT reach mass market status
  16. HP will not swallow 3Com without serious indigestion
  17. GSM will not die
  18. Renewable Energy Base Stations will hardly see any deployments for on-grid sites — limiting their green potential
  19. LTE will NOT be widely rolled out worldwide
  20. But RFID will keep chugging along…

To read ABI’s comments on each of these predictions, download the complete report from ABI’s website (requires free registration).


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