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The electric vehicle market will grow to 2.7 million cars by 2015, forecasts IDC Energy Insights. The firm says its research points to the need for the electric utility industry to “immediately prepare” for the resulting increased stress on the power grid, or risk “havoc.”

IDC’s research studied the pending roll-out of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) worldwide. The firm says its reports indicate that beginning with initial introductions of several models in 2011, PEVs there will be more than 2.7 million PEVs plugged into the global grid by 2015. Of those, around 885,000 will be located in North America and another 780,000 will be in Europe.

“PEVs are coming,” continues Jaffe. “Despite many doubters, this oft-promised technology is finally on the verge of becoming a reality, with more than 540,000 vehicles to be sold globally by 2012. The electric utilities industry does not have the luxury of taking a wait-and-see approach to PEVs: it must begin to prepare for their arrival now.”

“Unfortunately, these vehicles will cause havoc on the distribution grid if they start appearing without any preparation by grid managers,” says IDC Energy Insights Research Manager Sam Jaffe. “The utilities that prepare today for this new reality will be the ones that will win in the long term.”

“These cars, or ‘mobile appliances’ as the industry should think of them, also represent a significant new source of revenue and, if handled correctly, profit, as well as the chance to run the night-time generation queue more efficiently,” Jaffe adds.

“PEVs represent a significant revenue opportunity for electric utilities,” continues Jaffe. “But they also bring challenges such as the potential of transformer overload due to PEV clustering and excessive energy borrowing when cars roam outside of their utility region. It is best for utilities to prepare for these potential pitfalls today, instead of waiting for when the trickle of PEVs becomes a flood. We believe the utilities that prepare for this new reality will be the ones that win in the long term.”

“Utilities will also need to address the creation of novel rate structures that allow the utility to control how and when the vehicles are charged,” concludes Jaffee.

IDC describes its two reports as follows:

• Business Strategy: The Coming Electric Vehicle Rollout: Forecasting the Market — Forecasts the size and timing of the PEV rollout in North America, Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. Included are forecasts of electric vehicle sales from 2011-2015 and PEV penetration scenarios from 2015-2020. The report also provides an overview of soon-to-be-launched PEV models.

• The Coming Electric Vehicle Rollout Part 2: Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utilities — Provides an overview of the challenges utilities will face in meeting the increased demand on the grid. Coming challenges include the need for “significant upgrades” to energy distribution equipment, including a requirement for separate metering equipment and the need for advanced transformers capable of handling increased loads.

For further information, visit the IDC Energy Insights website.